TURKEY: Back in Reconciliation Mode with EU

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Analysis by Hilmi Toros

ISTANBUL, Oct 2 2007 (IPS) - The European Union and Turkey, engaged over 40 years ago for a marriage that may never take place, are back in reconciliation mode after a period of estrangement.

Turkey has a new parliament, a new government and a new president, all pursuing a pro-EU policy in what many Turks consider the impossible dream of full EU membership for a largely Muslim nation of 72 million in a “Christian Club”.

The accession talks were all but suspended for months due to the electoral hiatus in Turkey, and on the other hand, with presidential elections in France, where Nicholas Sarkozy emerged victorious after an outspoken stand against full membership for Turkey.

But now, even with Germany and Austria opposing full membership for Turkey, the EU is willing to resume accession talks, according to European enlargement commissioner Olli Rehn.

Sarkozy is portrayed as having softened his opposition to eventual Turkish membership. Turkish media widely quoted French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner telling the Council on Foreign Relations, a New York think tank, that he was among those who convinced Sarkozy not to block Turkey’s membership negotiations.

France’s far-right National Front says Sarkozy has made a U-turn on Turkey’s EU membership.

A meeting in New York last week between President Sarkozy and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan avoided any repetition of hard lines, amid promises of continued talks between the two countries on Turkey’s bid.

One view is that the EU and Turkey are involved in pre-marital quarrels, but are destined for eventual marriage that could or should have taken place earlier during the process of EU enlargement from an exclusive club of six nations to the current 27.

“It’s a quarter past midnight for Turkey’s entry into the EU, and the needles of the clock have to go around slowly once again,” Dennis Redmont, a U.S. media executive who has observed Turkish events for 30 years, told IPS.

“Over-enlarged Europe was unable to seize the magic moment, and now the Turks in the streets have no time for it. They are too busy growing.”

Enthusiasm for the EU is fast dwindling in Turkey; most Turks perceive the EU to be against a big Muslim among its ranks. Turks favouring full EU membership, at 70 percent in 2003, were down to around 50 percent by mid-2006, according to an independent Turkish Social Preference survey of a representative sample of 1,846 persons in 23 cities.

“It’s simple,” says restaurant manager Mustafa Olcay. “If they don’t want us, we don’t want them. We won’t beg to get in, or accept second class membership.”

He supports the government in refusing offers by France and Germany for a “special” or “privileged” partnership that is short of full membership. Turkey already has similar status, and the next step could only be full membership, he says. Turkey is an associated member of the EU, and is a part of the EU’s Customs Union.

Olcay also opposes a new proposal by Sarkozy for a Mediterranean Union incorporating Turkey for a loose partnership with the EU. Sarkozy has said before that Turkey belongs to “Asia Minor”.

But many Turks, while Muslim, consider themselves a part of Europe and on the Westernisation path charted by founder of the republic, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, in 1923.

Turkey’s currently stalled accession talks have taken up only four of 35 policy issues, the so-called Chapters, required for settlement before acceptance. France has blocked five, among them one on a single currency that could lead to full membership.

Eight, including one for free movement of goods, are blocked because of Turkey’s refusal to open its ports and airspace to Cyprus. Turkey does not recognise Cyprus as representing the whole island, and has relations only with Turkish northern Cyprus, that it alone recognises as a state. Cyprus was divided in two after Turkey invaded the northern third of the island in 1974 in response to a coup attempting to unite the island with Greece.

Turkey says the Cyprus impasse should be settled by interested parties, and not linked to its EU accession negotiations.

According to EU commissioner Rehn, some technical and non-controversial Chapters such as health and consumer affairs could be opened for negotiations. For any progress, the EU expects Turkey to enact statutes on increased freedom of expression and respect for human rights. These are expected to be included in a new constitution to replace the one drawn up after a military coup in 1981. But the new constitution will not come early.

If ever wedded, what will each partner offer to the other? And, do they need each other?

Those favouring Turkey’s full membership say an aging EU population will need labour, and that the EU will gain superpower status, and become a stronger global player with Turkey in. Turkey’s entry could also offer a counterpoint to the theory of the clash of civilisations, and the perception that religion or culture may bar EU membership. It may also reduce anti-Islam prejudice felt among the EU’s 15 million Muslims.

Turkey, with a rapidly growing economy – an annual growth triple that of EU – offers the EU a vast market and a springboard to other markets in the energy-rich Middle East and former Soviet republics in Asia.

But cultural differences may outweigh all these factors. “The trouble is that we (Turks) don’t know Europeans well, and they don’t know us well either,” says Olcay. “History shows us as adversaries.”