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POLITICS-BURMA: Aung San Suu Kyi’s Release Fits Junta’s Agenda

Larry Jagan

BANGKOK, Nov 11 2007 (IPS) - Tentative talks between Burma’s pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and the country’s military rulers have begun, raising hopes of a political breakthrough. “If the talks go well, she may be released soon,” a spokesman for her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), told journalists on the weekend.

Aung San Suu Kyi meets Ibrahim Gambari during the latest visit of the UN envoy to Burma Credit: UNIC

Aung San Suu Kyi meets Ibrahim Gambari during the latest visit of the UN envoy to Burma Credit: UNIC

The detained opposition leader, who has spent 12 of the last 18 years under house arrest, met Aung Gyi, a senior representative of the junta on Friday. This was the second meeting with the labour minister since his appointment last month as the government’s liaison minister.

But even more significantly, she was first allowed to meet key members of the NLD for the first time in more than three years.

The breakthrough in the current impasse between the two sides came immediately after the latest visit to Burma by the United Nations Secretary General’s special advisor to Burma, Ibrahim Gambari.

However, diplomats in Rangoon believe the visit was not instrumental in bringing about the new initiatives, but is rather a way for the regime to deflect international pressure to introduce political change, following the September crackdown by the army on peaceful demonstrations led by Buddhist monks.

“It is too early to tell whether the top generals are serious about political dialogue with the opposition or whether, as I fear, they are just using this to buy time while they press on with their own ‘roadmap’, which will effectively exclude Aung San Suu Kyi and her party from politics in the future,” a western diplomat told IPS on condition of anonymity.


The crucial change that Gambari was able to achieve is that, through him, Aung San Suu Kyi has been able to have her views heard. “In the interest of the nation, I stand ready to cooperate with the government in order to make this process of dialogue a success and welcome the necessary good offices role of the U.N. to help facilitate our efforts in this regard,” she said in a letter Gambari made public at the end of his trip.

“I am committed to pursue the path of dialogue constructively and invite the government and all relevant parties to join me in this spirit,” she appealed in the letter.

There was no reference to any precondition for such talks. Immediately after Gambari’s previous visit to Burma at the end of September, the Burmese junta leader Gen. Than Shwe had announced his willingness to meet the opposition leader, provided she was prepared to end “confrontation” and end her support for sanctions and the “utter devastation” of the country.

“These pre-conditions are unacceptable as it is tantamount to admitting guilty to charges which are totally unfounded, just to meet Than Shwe,” a leading NLD member told IPS, but declined to be identified.

Aung San Suu Kyi’s position has always been that everything is negotiable, provided there are genuine political talks between the military regime and the pro-democracy parties. Although she did not spell this out in her letter, it is something which remains the bedrock of her position. She has made clear that she regards Burma’s various ethnic groups as an essential part of any dialogue process.

The two meetings between the labour minister Aung Gyi and Aung San Suu Kyi are part of a new process that could lead to fresh talks between the NLD and the military government. “These are pre-talks rather than the start of a serious dialogue process,” independent Burmese analyst Win Min warned. “But in any negotiation, both sides have to show goodwill – so far that seems to be happening,” he added.

The release of several hundred political prisoners last week and the meeting between the top four NLD leaders and Aung San Suu Kyi are clearly confidence building measures. This was something Gambari stressed should be part of the process when he offered the U.N.’s services to help facilitate dialogue between the two sides, according to U.N. insiders.

But it is not a new idea. Former U.N. envoy Razali Ismail, who resigned from the role in January 2005, put forward a series of confidence building measures when he tried to broker talks between Aung San Suu Kyi and the generals when she was previously under house arrest and before May 2002 when she was released.

Now that there are tentative steps towards resuming contact between Aung San Suu Kyi and representatives of the regime which might lead to substantive talks between them, hopes have been raised that more political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi, will be released soon.

The U.N. is keen to present Gambari’s visit as a success in starting a process that could lead to a genuine political dialogue. “We now have a process going which will lead to substantive dialogue between the government and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi as a key instrument in promoting national reconciliation in an all-inclusive manner,” said a U.N. statement at the end of Gambari’s visit.

Privately, U.N. officials admit it was anything but a success. Gambari remained a virtual prisoner in the new Burmese capital Naypidaw, 400 km north of Rangoon. He spent only a few hours in Rangoon as he entered and exited the country. “The regime kept him there because they feared his presence in Rangoon might spark fresh protests,” a Bangkok-based diplomat who deals with Burma told IPS.

To add insult to injury, Gambari met very few members of the government, and none of the top leaders. “Than Shwe did not want to see Gambari and used his usual delaying tactic – using low-ranking ministers as shields to avoid meeting him,” said Win Min, the Burmese academic based at Chiang Mai University.

Clearly the top generals were not interested in what Gambari had to say. In fact, they made their position crystal clear when information minister Brig.Gen. Kyaw Hsan attacked him in the state-run media after their meeting in Naypidaw early last week. He accused Gambari of being superficial and ignorant of Burmese history and culture; and worse being a stooge of the western powers that wanted to interfere in Burma’s internal affairs.

Kyaw Hsan was particularly upset by the U.N. envoy’s suggestion that they should start three-way talks with Aung San Suu Kyi and have Gambari act as a mediator. “Myanmar (Burma)… will never allow any outside interference to infringe on the sovereignty of the state,” he was quoted as saying on the state-run TV. If Gambari really wanted to help Burma, “he should play a leading role in organising and persuading others to relieve and lift sanction,” he demanded.

This outburst suggests that the sceptics may be right, and the contact and talks with Aung San Suu Kyi are a side-show, intended to buy the regime time.

“While putting energy into the democratisation process, the government has been making efforts for the national reconsolidation,” said the lead story in the ‘New Light of Myanmar’ on Saturday after reporting the meetings between Aung San Suu Kyi and the government minister and her meeting with members of the NLD executive.

There are also other signs that the top generals are not the least interested in the international community’s efforts to encourage democratic change and are intent on introducing a political system that will consolidate the military’s power in the future.

”Than Shwe and his hard line supporters have no intentions of including Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD in talks about Burma’s political future. They are pressing on with their own road map and are certainly not interested in having any U.N. involvement,” a source close to the Burmese government told IPS on condition of anonymity.

The top general wants to finish drafting the new constitution which effectively legitimises their grasp on political power and have the summit of ASEAN leaders, in Singapore in two weeks’ time, endorse it, he said. Association of South East Asian Nations or ASEAN is a grouping of ten countries – Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Burma.

A referendum on the new constitution would then be set for early next year, according to a senior Burmese government official.

”The only issue open for discussion with Aung San Suu Kyi, the pro-democracy parties and ethnic groups would be the acceptance of the constitution and support for the planned referendum,” said an Asian diplomat based in Rangoon.

”The hardliners have strengthened their control on power and are in no mood to include Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD in the process,” Win Min said. But often in the past when there have been talks between the two sides, the regime has had to accept a measure of change.

 
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