MIDEAST: Reshuffle Is Not Reform

By Cam McGrath Reprint | | Print |

Cam McGrath

CAIRO, Jul 11 2004 (IPS) - Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has sacked the cabinet and appointed a new prime minister, but analysts say real changes will not come without sweeping democratic and economic reforms.

“We need a new government that is politically creative and has an efficient administrative system capable of finding new solutions to age-old problems,” writes Emad Eddin Adab, editor-in-chief of the independent weekly Nahdet Misr.

Egypt was one of the first Arab countries to implement economic reform and introduce a multi-party political system. Reforms initiated in 1976 have shown little progress, prompting calls both at home and abroad for greater market liberalisation and democracy.

“There was some success in the early stages of economic reform, but it has stagnated,” says economist Gouda Abdel Khalek, a prominent member of the leftist Tagammu Party. “The real trouble is the political system, because according to the constitution the power is concentrated in one man, the president.”

President Hosni Mubarak has ruled Egypt since 1981 and is also head of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP). Opposition parties exist, but are ineffectual due to weak leadership and restrictions imposed by the government.

State-run newspapers hailed this week’s cabinet reshuffle as “the first steps of change.” Prime Minister Atef Ebeid and his 32 ministers tendered their resignations during an emergency cabinet session Friday. Egyptians accuse the Ebeid government of failing to tackle widespread corruption, currency devaluation and unemployment.

“Much of the blame for the current situation has to do with measures taken, or not taken, by the Ebeid government,” Abdel Khalek told IPS. “The standard of living has decreased for the average citizen and we don’t see the economy rebounding.”

The cabinet reshuffle came as no surprise. The government leaked plans of the reshuffle last month, but it was put off until President Mubarak completed medical treatment in Germany.

What did surprise analysts was Mubarak’s appointment of Ahmed Nazif as prime minister. The 52-year-old computer specialist previously held the post of minister for communications and IT. He spearheaded Egypt’s IT development and e-government programmes, but has no significant political experience.

Hassan Nafaa, head of the political science department at Cairo University said Nazif’s appointment may spur technological advancement, but his lack of political and economic credentials will do little to restore confidence between citizens and the government.

“People were expecting a politician capable of carrying out a real process of political reform, but this hope has now vanished,” he told IPS.

Mubarak has ordered Nazif to form a new cabinet. Fourteen new faces are slated to replace “old guard” cabinet members, many of whom are now in their 70s and have been in office since Mubarak came to power.

“People were fed up of seeing the same figures for 22 years,” said Nafaa. “They had nothing more to give; they had become too powerful and too corrupt.”

Deputy prime minister and minister for agriculture Youssef Wali is among the old guard figures expected to be shown the door. Regarded as “untouchable” for two decades, a high-level corruption scandal involving his ministry may have his days numbered.

Mubarak recently reassigned Safwat El-Sherif as head of the Shura Council, a parliamentary body with no legislative authority. El-Sherif served as Egypt’s information minister since 1981 and is considered the most powerful member of the old guard.

Analysts are divided over the reason for the move. Some have suggested it was an “honourable retirement” for the 71-year-old party loyal. Others speculate the reassignment was aimed at preventing El-Sherif from blocking the ascendancy of Mubarak’s son, 41-year-old Gamal.

Gamal Mubarak is one of many younger generation, reform-minded NDP members shortlisted to fill the vacuum left by departing old guard cadres. The fresh blood could invigorate Egypt’s ossified political system, but it is no guarantee for reform, argues Hafez Abu Sa’ada, secretary-general of the Egyptian Organisation for Human Rights (EOHR).

“Political reform is solely in the hands of the president,” he told IPS. “The cabinet doesn’t really have anything to do with it.”

He said the first step towards any serious reform is for President Mubarak to abolish emergency laws in effect since 1981.

“Emergency law is the main obstacle to reform in Egypt,” he said. “It gives the government broad powers to control political life and no one can expect any real change as long as it is in effect.”