POLITICS-MALAYSIA: Preparing for Snap Polls

By Baradan Kuppusamy Reprint | | Print |

Analysis by Baradan Kuppusamy

KUALA LUMPUR, Mar 13 2007 (IPS) - While Malaysia’s parliament is due to be dissolved only in May 2009, election fever is already gripping this racially divided nation following speculation that the stumbling administration of Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi may prefer to face the voters before economic and social conditions worsen.

The fever is also fuelled by reports in the media of infighting among political parties to grab ‘winnable’ constituencies to contest.

Badawi, now into his third year of a five-year term, won a stunning victory in 2004 largely by espousing moderate Islam, pushing an anti-corruption platform and promising extensive reforms.

His 14-party National Front coalition won 199 of the 219 seats in the bicameral parliament – the best ever performance by any prime minister since independence from British colonial rule in 1957.

But political analysts told IPS that the immense goodwill and euphoria that Badawi brought to office has dissipated, not so much because he has suddenly turned unpopular but because his election promises to combat corruption and defend and promote democracy remain unfulfilled. His leadership, they say, has been ineffectual and his economic management lacklustre.

The public are also put off by his cabinet that is bloated with ministers, some discredited, from his predecessor’s government.

There is also uncertainty over the economic future of the country what with foreign direct investment being steadily sucked up by the Asian giants China and India.

For a people used to continuous growth – the economy grew at a phenomenal pace for a decade until the 1998 Asian economic crisis ended the run – the slower growth, tight money and longer delay in payments for government works are difficult to digest.

A recent poll by the Merdeka Centre, an independent opinion research firm, suggested that nearly 60 percent of ethnic Chinese voters, who make up about 30 percent of the 12 million voters, are unhappy largely over Badawi’s management of the economy. He is now hoping to ease Chinese fears of a ‘directionless economy'” with a 200 billion ringgit (57 billion dollars) package to finance the Ninth Malaysia Plan.

Although launched last year, the plan’s “wow” effect has yet to roll through the economy.

Non-Muslim fear has also heightened after Malay leaders, at a gathering of the ruling United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) last year, used threatening language, virtually telling non-Malays to accept their position as second-class citizens in a society where ‘positive discrimination’ is official policy.

Several Malay leaders also unequivocally demanded for a larger share of the retail economy which is dominated by the Chinese.

Under the circumstances, opposition lawmakers and others speculate that a snap poll is likely because Badawi can do without public discontent growing into a swell. The speculation intensified after he met top leaders of the National Front coalition on Monday ostensibly to assess election preparations, share constituency among coalition members and possibly pick a date to dissolve parliament.

”An early election is likely because Abdullah’s time is running out,” opposition leader Lim Kit Siang told IPS. “He has painted himself into a corner by failing to deliver on his promises after three years in power.”

Graft allegations against the government are on the rise, and last month the accusing finger touched none other than the head of the country’s top anti-corruption agency.

Although the government has ordered a probe, high level officials implicated in the scandal have not been asked to step down. The allegations seriously dented the government’s image and raised questions about Badawi’s commitment to eradicate corruption.

On Sunday, the opposition fundamentalist Pan Malaysian Islamic Party or PAS, which won 1.05 million votes -mostly Malay Muslim – in 2004, met to plan its election strategy against Badawi’s UMNO.

By most counts it does not look good for PAS, a party formed to defend and promote Islam and feared by non-Muslims for its openly declared mission to turn the multi-racial country into an Islamic theocracy.

While the Prime Minister can be faulted for his lacklustre economic management and for his lame anti-graft measures, the Islamic platform, which counts significantly for Malays who form 60 percent, continues to shine for him.

”On the all-important Islamic front Abdullah has done very well,” said a political analyst with the National University of Malaysia who declined to be named. “Abdullah has travelled widely and is now accepted as an important Muslim leader both in the Middle East, among ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) and in Washington,” the analyst told IPS.

Besides moderate Islam, Badawi’s emphasis on rural development and agriculture – where the Malays predominate – are well received in the rural areas. Ethnic Chinese are mostly concentrated in the urban centres where they dominate small businesses and retail.

Badawi is often pictured in the media visiting farms, rice fields and fruit plantations to promote modern agriculture as one of the pillars of the new economy.

Unexpectedly, sustained high rubber prices are seeing something of a boom in villages and rural towns and while the national economy is waiting for the ninth plan to kick in, the small man in the village is all smiles.

In public, PAS leaders show confidence in recouping the losses they suffered in 2004, but in private they fear that Malay Muslim support is steadily slipping away to Badawi. Besides, the party is unwilling to drop its declared mission of creating an Islamic state if it wins power and this has stood in the way of forging a viable opposition alliance.

”The Chinese voter will not support PAS policies especially on the Islamic state matter,” political analyst Ibrahim Sufian told ‘The Sun’ newspaper last week, explaining why PAS fundamentalist policies are driving non-Muslims into the government’s arms. The Democratic Action Party, which promotes Chinese interests, is unlikely to join any formal opposition coalition which includes the PAS.

The only hope of ever bridging the gap between the secular and the Islamic opposition lies with former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim, who is on a political comeback after six years in prison on corruption and sodomy charges.

Ibrahim is currently touring the country, offering a new vision of a united and prosperous Malaysia minus any form of discrimination.

”He hopes to put together a strong coalition to challenge Abdullah,” said Tian Chua, information chief of Ibrahim’s National People’s Party, called ‘KEADILAN’ in its Malay acronym.

Because of the convictions Ibrahim is barred from contesting or holding political office for five years. But the ban expires on Apr. 14 next year.

Ibrahim’s supporters have appealed to the King to pardon him but without success. “I won’t be surprise if the elections are called before Apr. 14,” Ibrahim told IPS. “In that case I cannot contest but will campaign hard for the opposition.”

Ibrahim was a rising star and slated to replace Dr Mahathir Mohamad as prime minister when he was sacked unceremoniously.

He was released in September 2004 after the country’s highest court acquitted him of the sodomy charges. By then he had already served his six-year sentence for corruption.

Although the charismatic Ibrahim draws crowds, especially the Malays, it is unclear how much of the appeal will translate into votes.