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POLITICS-JAPAN: Fukuda to Fight Fires at Home First

Analysis by Mutsuko Murakami

TOKYO, Sep 26 2007 (IPS) - Japan’s new Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda has begun smoothening feathers ruffled in the neighbourhood by his predecessors, Shinzo Abe and Junichiro Koizumi. But what he really needs is goodwill at home until he can lead his battered Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) into a snap poll, expected next year.

Technically, Fukuda&#39s term as LDP president – and therefore as prime minister – will end on Sep. 30, 2009, but the government, ridden by corruption scandals and lacking majorit in the upper house of the Diet (parliament) is not likely to last that long.

Jiro Yamaguchi, politicial scientist at the Hokkaido University says: "Fukuda&#39s cabinet is essentially a caretaker until Japan can hold snap elections." A growing public consensus calls for elections, too, after two prime ministers – Abe and Fukuda – have taken office without facing a general election

At his first press conference, after taking over as prime minister on Tuesday, Fukuda admitted half-jokingly that the LDP was a on a tight leash and &#39&#39could lose governing power if we (the cabinet) make one false step’’.

&#39&#39First of all, we need to do our best to end the public distrust in politics,&#39&#39 said Fukuda hinting at public pension-related scandals and resignations from cabinet that caused Abe to quit after only a year in office, saying he had lost the trust of the people. "Otherwise, no matter how great the policies we talk about, the people will not trust us,’’ Fukuda said.

Abe’s lack of leadership began to show up after the traumatic defeat in the July election of the Upper House of the Diet (parliament), where the LDP lost its majority. That put into jeopardy Abe’s plans to extend Japan’s logistical support provided to United States naval fleets deployed in the Indian Ocean for the ‘war-on-terror’ in Afghanistan since 1991.

It now falls on Fukuda to convince parliament to extend Japan&#39s naval mission in the Indian Ocean, comprising mainly refuelling operations, when a bill is introduced during the current session. If the vote does not take place before Nov. 1, when the current authorisation expires, Japanese tankers and vessels must return home.

Fukuda may, if he cannot gain a consensus, resort to a mechanism by which the LDP-dominated Lower House can bulldoze a new bill through, even if the Upper House rejects it – a likely prospect given that opposition parties do not support the refuelling operations and have demanded to know if they help the war in Iraq as well.

But Fukuda’s best bet, if he is to build any consensus, is to tap on the pacifist legacy of his father, Takeo Fukuda, who was prime minister for two years from December 1976 and during whose tenure Japan and China signed a Peace and Friendship Treaty.

The senior Fukuda is remembered best for a speech he made in Manila during his tour of South-east Asia in 1977, later called the ‘Fukuda Doctrine.’ He had pledged that Japan would never become a military power: it would form relationships of mutual confidence and trust with South-east Asian countries and cooperate with them as an equal partner.

During his ten-day campaign seeking election as party president, the son was emphatic that there is ‘’no need to dare to take any action that will cause resentment in China or Korea’’. He confirmed that he would not, while in office, visit the controversial Yasukuni Shine where Japan’s military leaders, convicted and executed as war criminals after the end of World War II, lie buried.

Koizumi’s repeated visits to the war shrine as prime minister, claiming that he was only paying respect to the collective spirit of the people who dedicated their lives to the country, did not go down well in China, Korea and other Asian countries that took the brunt of Imperial Japan’s militarism.

During his campaign, Fukuda noted the need for maintaining a good balance between Japan&#39s alliance with the United States and its membership in Asia. He said he would like to deal with North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and the issue of returning Japanese citizens, abducted by the ‘hermit country’ during the cold war, through dialogue.

Fukuda also publicly vowed that he would pursue the ideals of the ‘Murayama Statement’, enunciated in l995 at the 50th commemoration of the end of World War II. The socialist prime minister Tomiichi Murayama had then expressed regret over the colonisation and invasion by Japan of vast areas of the Asian region. "We should honour what was stated by the prime minister of Japan," Fukuda said.

The Murayama statement was used by successive administrations as a formal stance of the government. But it frustrated hardcore conservatives in Japan, including many in the ruling party, who would like to interpret history differently.

On his website, Fukuda pledges that he will aim at diplomacy based on Japan’s identity as an Asian nation while paying respect to the United Nations and firmly maintaining an alliance with the U.S.

When Abe announced his step-down plan last week, the man favoured to succeed was Taro Aso, 67, a hardliner who has served as foreign minister and in recent weeks was chief cabinet secretary to Abe. However, tired of the party’s unpopularity thanks to Abe and his friends amid a series of money scandals and failing acts, LDP bigwigs thought it prudent to support Fukuda, a rival with a far more moderate image.

&#39&#39He is a stabiliser, which is what Japan needs,&#39&#39 said a Western diplomat in Tokyo. ‘’Fukuda would represent a less aggressive image of Japan with his sense of good balance in diplomacy, and he will be good in coordinating his party leaders,’’ the diplomat said. Yet, palpably, there is a lack of enthusiasm in welcoming the new Prime Minister, or the cabinet mostly inherited from his predecessor. According to media analyses there is frustration over the way ruling party leaders chose him behind the curtains.

&#39&#39It is hard to see why the party had to choose him, not anyone else," says one university student in Tokyo. &#39&#39The process holds little accountability for his appointment."

The new premier badly needs to restore public confidence in his party and its policies. In the July elections, Japanese voters apparently also indicated anger at the alleged embezzlement of pension funds by government bureaucrats and a widening gap between the cities and rural areas and between the haves and have-nots.