POLITICS: Guinea Poised to Play a Crucial Role as U.S. Steps Pressure on Iraq

By Lansana Fofana Reprint | | Print |

Lansana Fofana

FREETOWN, Mar 5 2003 (IPS) - Guinea’s presidency of the UN Security Council comes at a crucial moment when attention is focused on Iraq and U.S. preparation for war in the Gulf.

”This is a pride to us and I am convinced my country will serve well in that capacity,” says Amadou Diallo, a top official of President Lansana Conte’s ruling party.

Guinea – this month’s President of the UN Security Council – assumed the crucial role on Mar 1.

For the past few weeks, top U.S. and British officials have been visiting the capital Conakry to hold talks with the Guinean authorities, including Prime Minister Lamine Sidime. Visits from Walter Kansteiner, the U.S. State Department’s head of African Affairs, and Baroness Amos, the British Foreign Office Minister responsible for Africa, promised aid packages for the impoverished nation.

In the past, the United States was giving 50 million U.S. dollars and limited military assistance ”for defensive purposes” to Guinea in aid annually. France is Guinea’s largest donor, followed by the United States.

”We are likely to see increased U.S. aid in the near future and cash-strapped Guinea may support the Americans in the war in Iraq,” a Western diplomat based in Freetown, Sierra Leone, told IPS this week.

But the question of whether or not Guinea would fully back a U.S.-led war on Iraq is yet to be seen. 85 percent of the population is Muslim and feelings there are running high against a war on Iraq.

”How could we support a war on a fellow Muslim state?” asks Mariama Dumbuya, a Guinean businesswoman who resides in the Guinean capital, Conakry. ”I think our government has to be very careful in reaching decisions on such a sensitive matter.”

Also at stake is Guinea’s relationship with its former colonial power, France. In 1958, the country, under the leadership of the late dictator Ahmed Sekou Toure broke ties with France.

And for many years to follow, France isolated the West African country, a factor mainly responsible for its current economic and social woes.

But it seems the new French policy of mending fences with its former colonies and France’s stance on the Iraq crisis may turn things around. Sources in Conakry have intimated IPS the French, opposed to war in Iraq without the approval of the Security Council, are not leaving Guinea alone.

”French diplomatic romance with the Guinean government is growing and the French want to have Guinea on their side,” says political analyst Saidu Sesay.

French aid to Guinea grew over the years and the Guinean government is keen on improving relations with its former colonial power. There are many French businesses, non-governmental organisations and aid agencies operating in Guinea. Now, the diplomatic battle lines have been drawn, but it seems the Guineans are keeping their cards close to their chests.

A Guinean diplomat interviewed by IPS in Freetown said his country would do what is best and live up to the expectations of its people. ”We want to make sure whatever decision we take reflects the wishes of our people,” he said.

There is no doubt that Guinea – with its unexploited diamond, gold, uranium and bauxite resources – needs considerable western assistance. The economy is in turmoil and the country flanked by conflict-ridden neighbours, the major threat being Liberia which is currently torn apart by a vicious civil war.

Rebels from Liberia have attacked Guinea more than twice in the past. And, Guinea, with a population of eight million, plays host to 450,000 refugees from Liberia, Sierra Leone and Cote d’Ivoire.

Said a commentator: ”The Americans know the economic and security problems facing Guinea and they may well take advantage of that”.

Guinea – one of the three African countries, Angola and Cameroon are the other two, on the Security Council – has reportedly been discussing what it expects from the rival western powers over the Iraq issue.

The UN resolution, which the U.S. seeks to sponsor, needs nine ”yes” votes out of 15 and no veto from one of the Security Council’s permanent members: the United States, France, Britain, Russia and China.