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BURMA: Junta Puts Political Reform Plan on Hold

Analysis by Larry Jagan

BANGKOK, Mar 26 2007 (IPS) - Burma’s military rulers have put the country’s political reform process on hold amid divisions and uncertainty on how to move forward on ‘national reconciliation’ as the junta calls its programme for political change.

Burma’s military rulers have put the country’s political reform process on hold amid divisions and uncertainty on how to move forward on ‘national reconciliation’ as the junta calls its programme for political change.

As the top generals are preoccupied with reorganising the administration and military command structure, under their ailing leader Gen. Than Shwe, the reform process is reported to have ground to a complete halt.

‘’The hardliners, who are resisting any kind of change, have regained the ear of the senior general (Than Shwe), while the pragmatists have gone to ground,” says independent Burmese analyst, Win Min who is based in the Thai border town of Chiang Mai.

“The generals are in no hurry to introduce political reform and feel international pressure has subsided after escaping U.N. Security Council censure earlier this year, when the junta’s main allies, China and Russia, blocked the United States-backed resolution.”

The National Convention, tasked with drawing up the new constitution, has been postponed until the end of the year, according to senior government officials. It was expected to resume its deliberations within the next few weeks.

“The National Convention cannot reconvene until the Senior General’s plans for the future have been implemented,” said Win Min. “They have to be certain that they can control the referendum which will approve the new constitution.”

But the biggest challenge to the regime’s authority may yet come from within Burma as there are increasing signs of dissatisfaction across the country at the generals’ failure to introduce political and economic changes. “It’s a social volcano about to erupt,” a Burmese economist in Rangoon, who asked not to be named, told IPS over telephone. “All it needs is a spark to ignite the fire,” he said.

On top of that Than Shwe’s health is deteriorating dramatically, casting another shadow over plans for political change at least. He is getting increasingly reclusive, hiding away in his palatial mansion in Nay Pyi Taw, some 400 km north of Rangoon. He sees very few people and only comes out to attend major meetings or functions.

Signs of a power struggle between two of Burma’s second tier of generals – Gen. Maung Aye and Gen. Thura Shwe Mann – seem to have settled, for now, on the issue of who would take up the top post if Than Shwe’s health deteriorates further.

A major shakeup within the army and an extensive cabinet reshuffle is expected in the coming months as the regime prepares the ground for the completion of the new constitution and the subsequent referendum to ratify it. Behind the scenes, there still lurks major differences of opinion between the two main camps. The contenders for the top post are strongly divided over how to the move the country forward, and at what speed.

“Maung Aye heads the hardliners who will resist change at all costs preferring to maintain the status quo, whereas the other camp, led by Thura Shwe is interested in exploring new initiatives that could help break the country’s international isolation,” said a senior Burmese political analyst based in Rangoon with close ties to the military.

Maung Aye is now in control of all the day-to-day activities of the government, according to Asian diplomats who are close to the regime. While Thura Shwe may be inclined to be more pragmatic, there is no incentive for him to rock the boat. No one at the top is likely to benefit from change or progress towards political reform at this point, according to analysts in Rangoon. The status quo is by far the best option for everyone, including for Than Shwe.

“Amid the current uncertainty there is no incentive to move forward, everyone has more to lose than gain,” a senior western diplomat in Rangoon told IPS on condition of anonymity. That is particularly true for Thura Shwe, he said. “His best option is certainly to lie low and wait – if he tries to do too much, he could easily find himself isolated and share the same fate of the former prime minister, Gen. Khun Nyunt.” Khin Nyunt was arrested in October 2004, and is currently under house arrest after being sentenced to more than fifty years in jail.

Than Shwe’s brain-child, the National Convention, which has been meeting intermittently since January 1993 drawing up the guidelines for a new constitution, was expected to resume its discussions in within a few weeks for what many analysts expected to be the final session. But Than Shwe is no longer pushing forward on the political roadmap.

Diplomats and visiting European academics were told recently that the reopening of the National Convention has been postponed until later in the year. Information minister Brig.Gen. Kyaw Hsan told visiting German academics it could be October or even November, while foreign minister Nyan Win told diplomats that it would be later this year. But the authorities would not make a public announcement at this time as hostile elements outside the country were trying to sabotage the process.

Both Asian and western diplomats in Rangoon believe the convention is now unlikely to reconvene before November. Many in Rangoon believe this maybe partly because of the senior general’s failing health and his fear that he cannot relinquish any of his power at present as this may put his position and his family’s fortunes at risk.

“While Than Shwe may not be pushing ahead with the roadmap, he is still trying to execute the other part of his master plan,” said a senior military source. “His strategy is to separate the military from government.”

The process of civilianising the administration is being pushed ahead. The military commanders who controlled the local authorities at provincial, district and township level are being replaced with former soldiers. The new administrative chiefs are being drawn from the pool of recently retired middle-ranking military officers. More than a thousand were compulsorily retired earlier this year.

These planned changes are intended to prepare the army for the next phase in the country’s move towards political reform and the introduction of a civilian administration. The changes are part of Than Shwe’s plans to ensure that the draft constitution is approved by the national referendum, and to prepare the ground for fresh elections, expected to be held within the next two years.

“This is all part of Than Shwe’s plans to streamline government administration and strengthen the authorities control over the general population in preparation for a transition to so-called civilian rule and to win the elections held under the new constitution,” Win Min told IPS.

The changes in government and the army will be the most dramatic since the military seized power more than 18 years ago. But they may be too late to stem the growing frustration in the country with the junta’s failure to introduce political reform and improve the economy.

“The Burmese people are suffering as never before,” said a Burmese economist, on condition of anonymity. “Villagers throughout the country are finding it increasingly difficult to feed their families. They are hoarding rice and pulses for the fear for their future survival,” he said.

The recent demonstration of around 30 people in Rangoon – a rare occurrence in Burma since the mass pro-democracy demonstrations of 1988 – is one more symptom of the frustration being felt by the poorer people in the country. The protestors were complaining about deteriorating economic conditions and the sufferings of the people. “Down with Consumer Prices,” and “This is the People’s Cause,” read several of the protestors’ placards.

“We represent 52 million people,” one the protest march’s organisers told a foreign journalist when he asked him who was behind the protest.

At the same time there is a new wave of activism sweeping across Rangoon. Former diplomats, academics, civil servants and even government ministers are meeting regularly to discuss the situation in the country. They are increasingly concerned at the lack of change or progress in Burma.

“Something has to break soon. It just cannot continue like this indefinitely,” said a western diplomat in Rangoon. The soothsayers who usually have the last say in Burma are predicting change this year. “It is the year of the generals up to September; after that it will be the year of the people,” a renowned astrologer in Rangoon told IPS.

 
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BURMA: Junta Puts Political Reform Plan on Hold

Analysis by Larry Jagan

BANGKOK, Mar 25 2007 (IPS) - Burma&#39s military rulers have put the country&#39s political reform process on hold amid divisions and uncertainty on how to move forward on ‘national reconciliation&#39 as the junta calls its programme for political change.
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