Global Geopolitics, Global Governance, Headlines, Middle East & North Africa

LEBANON: Belligerence on the Rise Again

Mona Alami

BEIRUT, Sep 4 2008 (IPS) - Except for the Western looking houses along the horizon on the northern side of the blue line that separates Lebanon from Israel, little seems to separate Lebanon from Israel. Away from the picturesque landscape, however, whether in Israel or Dahiyeh – a Beirut suburb and Hezbollah's headquarters – belligerent talk is on the rise.

Accusations are coming from both sides of the border with increasing frequency – and violence. In recent weeks, Israeli security officials have voiced growing concern about Lebanon, especially after Hezbollah obtained official legitimacy for its resistance activities from the ministerial declaration adopted by the newly formed unity cabinet on Aug. 4.

The new Lebanese policy statement allowed Hezbollah to keep its weapons, and underlined the right of Lebanon's people, army, and resistance (referring to Hezbollah's military organisation) to liberate Israeli occupied areas and "defend the country using all legal and possible means." Hezbollah is also a political party in Lebanon, enjoying wide support from its popular Shia base.

"Since the 2006 war with Israel, Hezbollah has undoubtedly grown in strength. This can be attributed to the magnitude of the Israeli defeat (Hezbollah was able to thwart Israeli attacks), followed by the May 7 events," says Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, author of 'Hezbollah: Politics and Religion'. In May, demonstrations organised by the opposition dominated by Hezbollah started a spiral of violence between the opposition and the majority, leading to 67 deaths.

A fragile peace was brokered between the majority and opposition on May 21 in Doha, Qatar, leading to the creation of a unity cabinet, in which the opposition achieved veto power.

"The formation of a unity cabinet, the subsequent acquisition of veto power by the opposition, and the cabinet statement – which although not as forceful as the one issued in 2005 is still quite favourable to the resistance – are all factors advantageous to the 'Party of God'. The change in balance of power on the political scene combined with the recent prisoner swap (during which Hezbollah exchanged the bodies of two Israeli soldiers kidnapped in 2006 for 200 bodies of Arab fighters) has bolstered Hezbollah's position regionally," says Saad-Ghorayeb.

In recent weeks, Israeli officials have reiterated threats against Hezbollah and Lebanon. Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak has warned leaders around the world "of the consequences of destabilising the very delicate balance that exists in Lebanon."

The Lebanese policy comes alongside reports that Hezbollah is acquiring anti-aircraft missile capabilities. If these are true, the balance of power between Israel and the militant group could be altered, as such weaponry could thwart Israeli reconnaissance flights over Lebanon. New reports by Israeli daily Haaretz indicate that Hezbollah has equipped the tunnel infrastructure in South Lebanon with missiles.

"The moment the Lebanese government confers legitimacy on Hezbollah, it must understand that the entire Lebanese state will be a target," Israel's Environment Minister Gideon Ezra said.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has warned that Israel would launch a far more destructive campaign than it did in the 2006 war should Hezbollah come to lead the government. "During the war in Lebanon, we possessed massive capacity. We refrained from using it as we were fighting a terrorist organisation and not a state. We will not show so much restraint if Lebanon becomes a Hezbollah state," he said.

"Israel is launching this campaign against Hezbollah to pre-empt a possible strike in retaliation to the killing of top Hezbollah official Imad Mougniyeh last February in Damascus," says Saad-Ghorayeb.

Since Mougniyeh's car bombing, a covert security war has been going on between Hezbollah and Israel, according to Saad-Ghorayeb. The assassination of Syrian Brigadier Mohamad Suleiman in Tartous, Syria, who was said to be Hezbollah's liaison within the Assad regime, seems to corroborate the theory.

"The assault on a Jewish seminary in March of this year as well as the July bulldozer attack in Jerusalem in July (killing three) can be tied to Hezbollah and placed in the framework of an ongoing security war," added Saad-Ghorayeb.

According to the political scientist, the face of the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict has certainly changed since the Mougniyeh killing, especially after the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, pledged revenge and the eradication of the Jewish state.

"Naim Kassem, a high official in Hezbollah, recently declared that Hezbollah would target Israeli interests abroad. I believe the most likely scenario would be an attack inside Israel within less than a year," she says. "A war with Israel is unlikely for now, as Israel still lacks the technology to intercept short range missiles (Hezbollah's usual tactic when attacking Israel)."

War between Hezbollah and Israel, though postponed for the time being, seems to be taking a different form, one as deadly but far more clandestine.